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Research Tidbits (May 13, 2020)

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Driving Recovery

  • Apple Maps data show
    • Driving activity in the US has continued a dramatic recovery
    • Countries less affected like Germany continue to see a faster rebound in driving than countries like Italy or Spain
    • Shift towards individual transportation vs public transportation

Inflation

“From an economic point of view, there is much disagreement about whether the eye-popping stimulus packages will result in inflation, or whether deflation will become a permanent fixture… the more immediate question is how will we pay for the trillions of stimulus dollars governments are borrowing.”

April CPI fell by 0.45%, the largest decline on record, which was expected. Headline inflation fared better than expected with overall prices falling by 0.8% from March. Investment bank projecting weak inflation numbers but closer to normal going forward.

U.S. Lodging Industry:

U.S. RevPAR -74.4% y/y in Week Ending May 9. Investment bank expects -79.1% RevPAR in Q2 2020

JO: Revenue Per Available Room is a key performance metric for hotels and lodging. It’s made up of Price x Occupancy.

Credit spreads From Deutsche Bank:

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