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Is the labor market collapse “temporary”?

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This is from an institutional research report from a global investment bank

  • Unemployment in April: 23 million. We peaked at 16 million in the depths of the Great Financial Crisis
    • 7.7mn jobs lost in Leisure & hospitality in April
    • 5.5mn jobs lost in restaurants and bars in April
    • JO: this means around half of the lost jobs are from entertainment, etc. I wonder how quickly this springs back
  • 80% of job losses in April classified as temporary layoffs
    • JO: this would be a bullish sign of a quick recovery… that is if they truly are temporary and don’t become permanent
  • Majority of job losses are from Low and Medium Wage jobs
  • 10mn people outside the labor force want a job now
  • Employment down 10% and 15% in manufacturing and services industries, respectively
  • 103mn people are not in the labor force.
    • JO: Thats almost 1/3 of Americans not working!
  • 1991-2001 and 2001-2007 saw massive growth to high skill jobs. There is a hollowing out of the middle class because of slow growth to medium skill jobs
  • Roughly 1/3 of employees at S&P500 companies work abroad
    • JO: Wow thats way higher than I would’ve guessed! I wonder what happens to these jobs with extended travel bans
  • Workers leaving their jobs voluntarily plummeted
    • JO: this is an indicator of wage growth. obviously people arent switching jobs or pushing for raises right now
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Responses

  1. 103mn people are not in the labor force.
    JO: Thats almost 1/3 of Americans not working!

    I suppose, and that sounds scary. But that includes people who can’t, won’t, weren’t working anyways, yes? That 103mm includes all Americans such as retirees, even little kids.

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