AnonymousDeleted UserMay 13, 2020 at 9:15 am
Hey guys . Just wanted to start this thread for anyone interested in this stock / What is everyone thinking right now ?
- MemberMay 13, 2020 at 11:26 am
Alright so I’ll throw this question out there… I got in here at $16/share – do I just ride the wave now at this point? I know @justinoh spreadsheet shows $27/share based on his model but wondering if I sell and be happy or hang tight and see what the merger brings? I’ve got about 50 shares so nothing that’s going to put me into early retirement ha, but also want to feedback as I’m still learning in the stock world. Thanks!
- MemberMay 13, 2020 at 12:36 pm
check out the graph of virgin galactic and compare. I think the companies are similar in new tech and future goals. SPCE had a lot of hype drive it up. But not looking at any real progress for quite some time. Similar with VTIQ.
- AdministratorMay 13, 2020 at 2:43 pm
Just an FYI my spreadsheet is now on the Downloads Tab 🙂
- MemberMay 13, 2020 at 8:54 pm
Justin did an awesome YouTube video (20 min) on a back of the envelope valuation and commentary. Super insightful and really what convinced me to sign up for this site. Highly recommend watching it if you’re interested in Nikola/$VTIQ. I watched his vid after buying in. I own shares and warrants (shares at $20 and warrants at $8$). Nikola has alot of headwinds but look how long it took Tesla to make a car.
What I don’t quite get about VTIQ is the discrepancy between the warrant and the stock after the strike price is calculated into the warrant value. Seems like an obvious arbitrage opportunity but noone is talking about it so it makes me nervous.
- AdministratorMay 14, 2020 at 8:29 am
Thanks for being here Rob! 🙂 . I’m going to be looking into the warrants more this morning. Want to dig in a bit deeper. I’ll post about it in the Hub soon 🙂
- MemberMay 17, 2020 at 11:02 am
I also have a vested interest in NKLA as I have a good amount of shares right now. I got in around 13.50.
Purely speculating on the potential, it seems attractive because they are essentially innovating their own space.
Trevor Milton has explained in interviews and such that his main goal is to grow NKLA vertically and compares his business model to that of an Apple and an Amazon, where his company would be a closed system and owns the infrastructure of hydrogen distribution. So if hydrogen electric becomes more popular, they make revenue on every user of hydrogen electric, assuming they own the majority of the supply. They currently have an interesting plan to leverage cheap electric from the grid on off times, in order to create hydrogen at their stations. If there is not cheap electric, Milton has said, they will use some sort of proprietary electric buffering tech. We will find out if this works or not.
Also comparatively to it’s competitors. They would be selling their trucks as more of a ‘transportation-as-a-service’ model, which I imagine would be better for companies balance sheets, as it would be an OPEX instead of CAPEX.
There are two main barriers in my mind. 1) Really cheap oil. Oil is really cheap, and if it continues to be cheap, adoption will be very slow. Similarly, I don’t know how much the world actually wants to go green. Right now it isn’t cost effective. This is why I think adoption in Europe will catch on faster than adoption in the states.
I don’t actually believe Tesla can compete with hydrogen electric in the industrial freight space. It seems that batteries have to scale in size and weight in proportion to the amount of power they exert ( I can link articles later). I just don’t think it is optimal for this use case.
For me personally, it’s more of an opportunity cost question. In the 4+ years it will take for this plan to come to fruition, is it really worth dumping money into this stock and taking a crap ton of risk (as shown more analytically by Justin) right now when I could be investing in more established companies?
- MemberMay 17, 2020 at 11:17 am
I forgot to add my second barrier, but i kind rolled it into just 1 point
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