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  • Tesla (TSLA)

     Justin Oh updated 5 months, 3 weeks ago 6Members · 13 Posts
  • Justin Oh

    Administrator
    May 9, 2020 at 10:17 am

    Starting the convo on this one! Go to the Downloads page to download my latest model on it šŸ™‚

  • Calvin

    Member
    May 13, 2020 at 10:24 am

    Based on the Valuation Model Justin did last week, what would be a Buy Price for $TSLA? Stock is down $770 (at time of writing).

  • Justin Oh

    Administrator
    May 13, 2020 at 10:28 am

    Hey Calvin, I’d probably be ok holding and buying in at like $600-650 per share. But hold on for dear life! This one’s more like Bitcoin than Berkshire Hathaway šŸ˜›

  • Dustin Abele

    Member
    July 12, 2020 at 6:44 pm

    Has Tesla risen too far and too fast? Currently around $1500/share. Is this another rise like in early 2020 where Tesla hit ~$900 before dipping? Or are people and large investment funds just now realizing what is going on here?

    Personally I’m super long on the stock, just seems bonkers how fast things can happen with Tesla.Rocket

    • Dustin Abele

      Member
      July 13, 2020 at 8:19 am

      Well, now its above ~$1700/share…

    • Justin Oh

      Administrator
      July 15, 2020 at 11:55 am

      I am long on the stock over time, but I think the valuation has run up too much. When we buy in at too high of a price, we underperform. Iā€™m not quite to the point of selling my TSLA but im definitely not adding to the position until its under 1000 (or I wait until the sales has caught up to justify reasonable 1700 price lol. Hope that helps!

      • Dustin Abele

        Member
        July 16, 2020 at 7:16 am

        Completely agree! Thanks for the affirmation.

  • Anonymous

    Deleted User
    July 23, 2020 at 11:09 am

    @justinoh can you help me understand the numbers from TSLA ER last nights? tsla’s profit was only 104m and they sold 428m in tax credits. if you take the tax credit sales away, they were -324m. Am I understanding this correctly? Doesn’t this mean, they were essentially in the red if it wasn’t for ‘big brother’ Uncle Sam handouts?

    Before the TSLA mob buries me – I love the car(s) they produce, but the valuation doesn’t make any sense.

    • Nathaniel Rittenhouse

      Member
      July 23, 2020 at 11:33 am

      I got all kinds of shit in the youtube comments for pointing out their sales were similar to last year this time where they lost 408 million, selling cars at a lower price while running two facilities instead of one. It’s some magical bookkeeping imo.

      • Anonymous

        Deleted User
        July 23, 2020 at 12:00 pm

        honestly, if I wasn’t scared of the permabulls ability to will this thing higher, I would’ve shorted it like it was 2007.

        • Justin Oh

          Administrator
          July 28, 2020 at 3:58 pm

          Agreed with all this. It’s just too high. I love Tesla. But as an investor we can find other companies at better prices with similar or better growth and margins. I guess you could think about it like that. But the Street is probably more impressed by the stability of their sales through COVID, which should imply growth after COVID is over. I still am not convinced that their growth rates should justify >8x forward sales. We can buy SPOT at 4x or PTON at 7x forward sales…

  • Seong

    Member
    July 24, 2020 at 8:02 am

    Would love more input on this as the stock has run down some to the 1400 support level. Next level is 1k but will pull the whole market down. Where can we justify a purchase of TSLA now that earnings are out. I am thinking this company is now at apples very early stages.

    • Justin Oh

      Administrator
      July 28, 2020 at 3:52 pm

      I’ve owned it but honestly still much too rich in valuation at 1500. I still think it deserves a <1000 price to get me interested in building a bigger position again. And I can find a great growth story elsewhere at better prices (SPOT, PTON, etc)

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