Economic Week Ahead (June 1, 2020)

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  • The focus this week will be on May’s economic report on Friday
    • Expectations are that the unemployment rate will increase to a post-WWII high of >19.0%
    • The data will be messy, with categorization inconsistencies around who is actually categorized as unemployed
  • Weekly jobless claims data will again be a highlight
    • Expectations are for 1.8 million new claims, bringing cumulative claims over 11 weeks to 42.5 million!
  • Today’s manufacturing ISM (39.0 vs 41.5) and Wednesday’s nonmanufacturing ISM (43.0 vs 41.8) are a mixed bag
  • High frequency data has suggested that the free-fall in economic activity has been stopped and output is picking up
  • We will have to wait until next week for more monetary policy information, since we’re in a blackout period ahead of the 6/10 FOMC meeting

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